Sentient AIoT and Fixed Wireless Access Set to Force a 'Great IoT Re-alignment' in 2026

The world of global IoT connectivity is facing a "great realignment” in 2026, according to new predictions released today by global IoT firm Eseye. The report warns that the era of Sentient AIoT is creating a fierce competitive battleground, driven by the relentless data demands of AI and the rapid adoption of 5G Fixed Wireless Access, which have dramatically raised the bar for operational performance. To overcome these new obstacles and secure the reliable real time data supplies required for Sentient AIoT, enterprises and operators are strategically moving away from fragmented, low-performance models in favour of professional, managed connectivity services.

Nick Earle, Eseye Executive Chairman, emphasised the severity of the shift: “When I review the insights for 2026, it’s clear we’re not just tracking incremental trends. We’re seeing early signs of a significant shift in how data is managed and valued. This isn’t simply evolution - it’s a turning point where data quality becomes a key differentiator.” He added: “The realignment ahead will favour organisations that recognise this change and adapt quickly, while others risk falling behind.”

The predictions below follow the original order of the report, outlining the critical shifts Mobile Network Operators (MNOs) and enterprises must navigate in 2026.

Prediction 1: US and APAC Solidify Their Cellular Leadership

Adam Hayes, COO

“This growing fragmentation creates a minefield for global IoT deployments. Your IoT device design must be backwards compatible with 4G for Europe, while also being forwards compatible with 5G Standalone (SA) in leader markets. The shift in cellular leadership, driven by restrictive EU roaming regulations and aggressive US/APAC 5G SA rollouts, creates a 'two-speed world.' With credible rumours of a major US operator announcing 4G LTE switch-off plans as early as next year, enterprises must adopt multi-RAT and eUICC SIM strategies to de-risk long-term investments.”

Prediction 2: 5G's 'Killer App': Managed Fixed Wireless Access (FWA)

Tony Byrne, CEO

“This will compel them to do something they have historically found abhorrent: partner with and sell other operators' connectivity. FWA is identified as the one 5G application that is practical, immediately profitable, and desperately needed. To capture the high-value managed service layer – rather than just low-margin SIM revenue – MNOs will aggressively move up the stack, requiring them to partner globally to deliver complete, managed FWA solutions to their multinational customers.”

Prediction 3: MNOs Will Be Forced to 'Pick a Direction' on IoT

Ian Marsden, Co-Founder and CTO

“The MNOs who just dabble will be on a clear path to being competed out of the market. Due to high cost-to-serve on legacy platforms like Cisco Control Centre, MNOs are stuck between an expensive consumer-centric cost structure and low-margin IoT economics. They must signal their long-term strategic direction: either 'Bowing Out' (divesting, as evidenced by Vodafone's standalone move) or 'Partnering to Win,' leveraging a specialist platform to deliver a profitable, global solution under their own brand.”

Prediction 4: The SGP.32 'DIY' Dream Will Become a Managed Service Necessity

Paul Marshall, Co-Founder and CCO

“2026 will be the year this "do-it-yourself" dream collides with a harsh operational reality, plunging many into the "trough of disillusionment. The powerful new SGP.32 eUICC standard, while promising, creates a 'DIY delusion' where enterprises mistakenly believe they can manage the immense complexity of being their own global virtual operator. This nightmare includes managing multiple contracts, billing, and technical configuration updates (like APNs), driving a rapid flight to fully managed SGP.32 solutions.”

Prediction 5: The Dawn of Sentient AIoT

Nick Earle, Executive Chairman

“The future of your business will not be built on a patchy, DIY connectivity model. It will be built on a robust, intelligent, and fully managed service. This new era of sentient AIoT agents requires an insatiable appetite for perfect, reliable, real-time data from the physical world. This data, or 'ground truth,' supplied by IoT, is essential to prevent powerful AI from 'hallucinating' and making catastrophic business errors. In 2026, IoT will be recognised as the most strategic asset for the enterprise.”

To download the full ‘Eseye's 2026 Global IoT Predictions: Sentient AIoT, the 5G Killer App, and the SGP.32 DIY Delusion’ report visit: https://bit.ly/4rk4RNm

About Eseye

As a global leader in IoT Connectivity and eSIM Orchestration, Eseye empowers Enterprises and MNOs to deliver high-performing global IoT. We provide the expertise to integrate, manage, and orchestrate IoT connectivity for any scale or complexity, intelligently optimizing connections to millions of devices across 190 countries, leveraging over 800 networks all with near-100% uptime. 

Our innovative eSIM Orchestration technology offers advanced federated localization, enabling MNOs and Enterprises to seamlessly manage eSIM profiles across regions and platforms, ensuring global scalability with localized precision. 

With decades of delivery for companies like TELUS, AT&T, MTN, Amazon, and Shell, we provide resilient, fully managed, and future-proofed IoT connectivity for lasting success.  

Nobody does IoT connectivity better.